How this site works
We collect reports from official agencies. We use some of them to make our own short forecasts. Later, we check each forecast against what really happened. We never claim to be certain. You can see how our forecasts turned out on the Track record page.
1 · We collect reports
We read current events and warnings from public sources. These include the GDACS, the USGS, the EMSC, NASA EONET, ReliefWeb and US weather and hurricane services. Each source covers only some hazards and places. If no source reports on a place, we cannot see what is happening there. A place with no reports is not necessarily safe.
2 · We tidy them
We give every event the same basic details: the hazard, the time, the place and the source. When two agencies report the same event, we show it once.
3 · We sort them
You can sort events by date, risk level, place or type. When you check a place, we show which events are close enough to reach it.
4 · We make forecasts
Each forecast starts from an official report. If a hazard such as a flood, storm or fire is still going on, we forecast whether it may carry on. The period depends on the hazard. It is usually a few days, and longer for a drought. After an earthquake of magnitude 5.5 or more, we forecast its aftershocks for 7 days. Every forecast names the hazard, the place and the period it covers.
5 · We lock them
We save each forecast in a public record when we first make it. We only ever add to that record. So the place, the dates and the test for success cannot be changed once the outcome is known.
6 · We check them
When the forecast period ends, we compare the forecast with the disasters that agencies reported. We mark it correct, partly correct or wrong only after looking at that evidence.
How we mark a forecast
| Result | What it means |
|---|---|
| Correct | The hazard happened in the place and period the forecast named. |
| Partly correct | The hazard happened in that period, but only in part of the place. |
| Wrong | Agencies reported no such hazard in that place and period. |
| Missed | A disaster happened that none of our forecasts named. |
| Cannot be checked | No source we read covers that hazard in that place well enough to say. |
| Test case | The forecast was written after the event had started, so it does not count as made in advance. |
Each hazard has a fixed distance limit, for example 250 km for an earthquake and 300 km for a flood. The same limit applies to every forecast. We do not change it to fit a result.
Types of information
Something that has happened, reported or measured by an agency
Issued by a government or scientific agency
Our own estimate of what may happen next, checked afterwards
Used for background and comparison