OUR OWN ESTIMATES

Natural disaster forecasts

These are our forecasts of what may happen next, and where. We make them from reports by official agencies. They are not official warnings.

FORECASTS—
EVENTS ON HIGH ALERT—
KINDS OF HAZARD—
SOURCES WORKING—
UPDATED—
FORECASTS REACH AS FAR AS—

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Map of forecasts and events on high alert

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Forecasts

Full table →

Events on high alert

All official warnings →

Official agencies have given these events a high alert level. These reports show what is happening now. They are not forecasts. We make our forecasts above from official reports like these.

What changed since our last check

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How we make forecasts

Methodology →
1. Spot

We look for unusual weather, water or ground conditions.

2. Where and when

We mark the area that may be hit and the dates the forecast covers.

3. Keep them apart

We never show an official report as our forecast, or our forecast as an official report.

4. Check

Later, we check each forecast against what really happened. We lock the rules for that check when we make the forecast: the dates, the area, the cause and what counts as damage.

Checking our forecasts

How we check forecasts →

ND-001 · Central Vietnam flash-flood + landslide forecast

This forecast is separate from official warnings. A warning or heavy rain alone does not make it correct. It only counts as correct if serious damage or harm is reported inside the area and dates that were locked when it was made.

See the ND-001 forecast →