Important: These are our own estimates, not official warnings. We do not predict exactly when an earthquake will strike. We check each forecast only against real harm or damage, reported by an independent source after the forecast was made.
Current forecasts
How we check a forecast
- Timing
- The harm or damage must happen during the forecast period.
- Place
- It must happen in the area we named when we recorded the forecast.
- Cause
- The hazard must happen in the way we forecast.
- Real harm
- A warning or report that already existed does not count as a correct forecast on its own. The harm or damage must be reported by an independent source, and it must be serious enough to matter.
- Result
- We mark each forecast correct, partly correct, wrong or cannot be checked. We keep the evidence from our sources.