Track record
How the forecasts we have recorded turned out. This includes the ones we got wrong, the ones we could not check and the disasters we missed.
Loading the track record…
What these figures mean
✓ Forecasts that came true
⚠ Significant events we missed
Significant disasters on record
Every significant disaster in our record, including the ones we did not forecast. If we have no record of checking that place at the time, we cannot say why a disaster was missed. The table says so, rather than blaming our checks or our forecasts.
| Disaster | Type | Where | Started | Deaths | Displaced | Evidence | Forecast in advance? | Why not |
|---|
All recorded forecasts
Newest first. You can search, filter or sort. We show 25 at a time.
| Forecast | Did it happen? | Result | Type of forecast | Actual severity | Hazard and place | Locked on | Forecast period | What counted as a match | Matching event | Evidence |
|---|
What we forecast compared with what happened
Each checked forecast, with what we forecast next to what we found.
Full details: advance forecasts, other forecasts and missed disasters
A forecast counts as made in advance only if we recorded it before the danger it names was known. Other forecasts are made later: about a flood that is already happening, about aftershocks after an earthquake, or as a test case written after its period began. These are real forecasts, but they do not foresee something nobody knew about. We report the two kinds separately and never add them together.
How our advance forecasts did
How our other forecasts did
These forecasts are about a danger already reported, or about what follows an event that already happened, such as aftershocks. We check them too, but never count them as advance forecasts.
Disasters and what we missed
How we work out these numbers
How we label results
For each forecast or event, we keep 4 separate labels: how severe the event was, how the forecast turned out, whether we were checking that place, and how strong the evidence is.
Precision answers this question: when we forecast an event, how often did it happen? Recall answers this one: of the significant disasters that really happened, how many had a forecast that counts, made in advance? Forecasts that are still running are left out until their period ends. A forecast based on an official warning gets no credit just because the warning already existed.